Dicey Trade

You have read and seen all over conventional media that FII's are ditching the Indian market for better opportunities especially the Asian Peers to invest in AI/Data Centre theme such as Taiwan or Hong Kong. Even the are gravitating towards China because the valuation is quite cheap as compare to India. As of mid 2025, the Nifty was trading around 22-23x forward PE, while China (10-11x), Hong Kong (7-8x), and Indonesia (11-12x) offer significantly cheaper entry points. Earlier when the valuations were attractive in India the FII's followed “Sell China, Buy India” but now they have reversed this to “Sell India, Buy China”. This is apparent in the return of the markets on YTD basis Nifty has return of -9.1% while South Korea leads and has a YTD return of 55%, followed by Taiwan which delivered YTD return of 48%, Brazil gave a 9.1% return, China has -5.2% return, Hong Kong has -5.22% return. When global macro pressures rise (such as high U.S. bond yields, a strong dollar, or shift...

In our previous analysis I have discussed that PE buying is happening at the 23,900 strike and aggressive CE writing at 24,000 strike price. I discussed this yesterday as well, 24,100 is a strong resistance zone and Nifty will not be able to cross it. Now the strong resistance has shifted to 24,000. Today Nifty opened Gap Down of 200+ points and after the market settled, we sold Nifty at 10.12AM when Nifty was trading at 23,620 with a SL of 23,680-23,680 for a target of 23,450-23,500. At 11.13 AM our SL was triggered and we exited the trade at 23,680.  After exiting the trade, we didn't any fresh trade. Since the last two weeks we were continuously short and we captured a very nice move on a positional basis. We took a light position today since it was a risky trade as there was a danger of dead cat bounce, but we went with the trend. We have published an article where we have discussed about the monthly derivative analysis and Nifty has almost completed the targets, you can read i...

As you know that our INR has depreciated a lot, from 2022 it has depreciated by 20% and in 2026 alone it has depreciated by almost 7% this is a rapid depreciation of an emerging market currency. When the FII's invest in emerging market they take in account the depreciation of currency of the market they are trading in. If they don't account for currency depreciation, then their profits will reduce significantly. What is NDF? NDF stands for Non-Deliverable Forwards which means no physical delivery of the underlying is taken place instead it is cash settled between both parties and usually it's in USD. NDF is done in emerging market currencies where the currency trading terms are stricter for example Indian Rupee, Brazilian Real, Chinese Yuan. The NDF contracts are used to hedge against the currency risk by the Institutions which lacks access to domestic markets for the particular currency as well as for speculative gain in the restricted currencies. The NDF contracts are tra...

India VIX stands for Volatility Index it measures the volatility expectation of the Nifty 50 index over the next 30 trading sessions. VIX is also called as the "fear gauge" it’s because VIX tends to rise when there is rise in uncertainty in the market and it tends to fall when there is calm environment. VIX doesn't tell us about the direction of market movement but the magnitude of the expected market movement. One more thing to note that the VIX is represented as an annual movement percentage of Nifty 50 Index. For example, India VIX is 16 then it’s expected that within the next 1-year Nifty can move in the range of -16% to +16% of its current SPOT price. How Is INDIA VIX Calculated? The methodology used by the National Stock Exchange (NSE) is derived from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) VIX calculation formula. The NSE employs a mathematical model in which they employ the best Bids and Asks of the Near Month expiry and Next Month expiry OTM options. The ...

I welcome you one again in this interesting article, we will discuss about TCS results and the hidden reality behind it. Its because if you see the headlines it will say TCS revenue has jumped by almost 14% if you compare year on year basis. June quarter 2025 revenue was 63,467 CR while June quarter 2026 the revenue is 72,275 CR, which is marked by colour YELLOW on the consolidated results page. If you dive deeper you will see that the revenue has increased by 14% in terms of rupees but in USD terms it's just increased by 3.5% which is neutral to negative. As during this period USD/INR depreciated by more than 10%. So this is why I always say dive deeper because the devil lies in the details. For Quarter on Quarter basis i.e. from March 31st 2026 to June 30 2026 the revenue jumped from 70,698 to 72,275 which is roughly 2.25% but actually in the USD terms its less than 0.5% growth. You all might be wondering why I am taking figures in USD rather than rupee because if you see the rev...

In this analysis we will talk about monthly outlook of Nifty 50 and we will also discuss about various factors such as Low VIX, and dissect the derivatives data for a clear understanding. We will also discuss about the low volume in our market and the pattern that is followed by the market, i.e. market opens Gap Up then it becomes choppy throughout the day, we rarely see momentum based buying in our market in real time, in-front of the screen. Nifty 50 Derivative Data Analysis: If we analyse the monthly data, On the CALL side 24,400 strike price long positions are added, you see the IV along with Volume and OI spurts then these are not confident inspiring long positions which are also called perpetual long positions.  On the strike price of 24,500--24,600 and 24,700 short positions via CALL writing are being carried forward. To protect these positions the strike prices of 24,900 and 25,000 are being brought as a hedge. The amount of hedging positions created is twice than the short...

So, before we divulge in the topics let's get familiar with few terms. The Clearing Member clears and settles deals/trades for a segment in a manner and mode and subject to such terms and conditions and procedures prescribed for them and they do this via Clearing Corporation. There are 3 types. Self-Clearing member: These entities clear and settles the trades for themselves and their clients, example Zerodha, Dhan. Clearing Member: They Clear and settle the trades for themselves and their clients if the client chooses them as a clearing member PCM (Professional Clearing member): They are not trader themselves but they clear and settle the trades for their clients for a fee. Prop Desk/Prop Trading. Prop trading is where a broker uses its own funds to place trades, you need to pass NISM VIII Equity Derivatives Certifications, and then you need to find a broker that will fund your strategy. And after this is done, you can only trade as dealer once you are employed un...

As you know that since the last two years Indian market has barely any returns and market is hovering around almost the same levels that it was during mid 2024's. So in this article we will discuss about the factors responsible for this phenomenon. If you see on the index basis there is not much correction but if you see in individual stock wise then you can see correction in all sectors stocks be it large cap, mid caps or small caps. Even there are 50%-60% correction in large cap stocks. People's portfolio is bleeding but surprisingly no one wants to talk about it. Index Return: If you see the three main Index Nifty, Bank Nifty and Sensex you will notice that they have corrected themselves to some extent but if you dive deeper and see the stocks listed in this Indexes and individual stocks you will see the pain, as they have corrected themselves to a greater magnitude.  The IT stocks were a posterchild for Indian service industry and there was a time when IT stocks held a very...